Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Luis Arraez

SF · Hitter
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs ATLBryce Elder
Sample3759.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.8
F 11.3
V 8.9
Model 9.5% Market 7.7% Gap +1.5pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.5% Market 82.5% Gap +16.3pp
BetMGM -470 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.1%
4
Exit velocity85.7
24
Hard-hit%19.3%
2
xBA0.305
33
xSLG0.400
14
xwOBA0.307
53 -27 vs proj
BB%4.7%
13
Bat speed61.6
1
K%4.2%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
85
Arm Strength88.4 · 2B
59
Outs Above Avg11.0 · 2B
98
Range Runs8.0 · 2B
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · 2B
70
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
94
Sprint Speed26.7 · 2B
31
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.2%
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.0%
18
Correct Decisions65.8%
47
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
23
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.315 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.045
Opposing pitcherBryce Elder
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)