Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-06-01 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-01

Willi Castro

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCOL vs LAAJosé Soriano
Sample2492.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.4
F 11.4
V 11.4
Model 12.9% Market 9.8% Gap +2.7pp
DraftKings 885 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 24.1
F 23.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 22.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 24.1% Market 26.1% Gap +2.3pp
DraftKings 295 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.0%
29
Barrel%4.0%
35
Bat speed70.5
65
Exit velocity88.2
46
Hard-hit%46.8%
79 +40 vs proj
K%28.9%
18 -21 vs proj
xBA0.316
41
xSLG0.488
42
xwOBA0.271
17 -50 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
86
Arm Strength92.9 · 2B
89
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
45
Range Runs0.6 · 2B
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 2B
54
Sprint Speed28.1 · 2B
72
SB Success Rate75.0% · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.1% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Correct Decisions62.7% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341 · validated
validated
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
Limited

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.080
Opposing pitcherJosé Soriano
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)