Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-07-11 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-11

Willi Castro

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs SFTyler Mahle
Sample2612.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.7
F 13.7
V 11.4
Model 12.8% Market 9.8% Gap +2.7pp
DraftKings 885 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.1% Market 68.2% Gap +8.8pp
BetMGM -215 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
37
Exit velocity87.6
45
Hard-hit%41.3%
60 +19 vs proj
xBA0.334
63
xSLG0.516
52
xwOBA0.297
39 -30 vs proj
BB%8.3%
46
Bat speed71.2
73
K%27.1%
25 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · 2B
91
Arm Strength92.9 · 2B
89
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
43
Range Runs-2.9 · 2B
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.0 · 2B
42
Bolts1.0 · 2B
15
SB Success Rate85.7% · 2B
67
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
77
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.8%
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
78
Correct Decisions62.9%
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.055
Opposing pitcherTyler Mahle
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)