Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Willi Castro

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs CINBrady Singer
Sample2613.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.4
F 13.5
V 13.0
Model 17.6% Market 9.8% Gap +7.4pp
DraftKings 885 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.7
F 59.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V 58.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 67.5% Market 68.2% Gap +8.5pp
BetMGM -215 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
35
Exit velocity87.6
45
Hard-hit%41.3%
61 +19 vs proj
xBA0.333
63
xSLG0.513
52
xwOBA0.294
36 -35 vs proj
BB%8.2%
45
Bat speed71.2
73
K%27.6%
24 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · 2B
91
Arm Strength92.9 · 2B
89
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
43
Range Runs-2.1 · 2B
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 2B
39
Bolts1.0 · 2B
15
SB Success Rate85.7% · 2B
67
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
77
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.8%
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
78
Correct Decisions62.9%
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.053
Opposing pitcherBrady Singer
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)