Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 21 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Willi Castro

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs CINHunter Greene
Sample2621.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.109, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.080, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.059, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.5
F 12.2
V 14.4
Model 16.5% Market 9.8% Gap +6.3pp
DraftKings 885 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.5% Market 66.7% Gap +8.4pp
BetMGM -200 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
40
Exit velocity87.7
45
Hard-hit%41.7%
62 +20 vs proj
xBA0.334
63
xSLG0.519
53
xwOBA0.295
38 -33 vs proj
BB%8.1%
43
Bat speed71.2
73
K%27.5%
24 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · 2B
91
Arm Strength92.9 · 2B
89
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
43
Range Runs-2.1 · 2B
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 2B
39
Bolts1.0 · 2B
15
SB Success Rate85.7% · 2B
66
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
77
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.8%
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
78
Correct Decisions62.9%
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.056
Opposing pitcherHunter Greene
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-21
Palantir 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.008 14d error falling
Fangorn 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 4743 props Brier 0.121 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)