Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Willi Castro

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs BALCade Povich
Sample2748.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.2
F 11.9
V 10.9
Model 17.2% Market 9.9% Gap +7.0pp
DraftKings 875 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.7% Market 69.7% Gap +12.4pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
56
Exit velocity86.9
39
Hard-hit%40.7%
60 +16 vs proj
xBA0.338
73
xSLG0.561
69
xwOBA0.311
57 -19 vs proj
BB%8.5%
51
Bat speed71.0
71
K%26.5%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
59
Arm Strength92.9 · 2B
88
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B
72
Range Runs-3.5 · 2B
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · 2B
55
Bolts1.0 · 2B
12
SB Success Rate83.3% · 2B
59
Sprint Speed28.2 · 2B
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.6%
18
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.7%
81
Correct Decisions63.9%
28
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherCade Povich
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)