Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Willi Castro

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs STLAndre Pallante
Sample2752.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.5
F 12.0
V 8.8
Model 16.0% Market 9.8% Gap +5.9pp
DraftKings 885 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.8% Market 67.7% Gap +11.8pp
BetMGM -210 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
54
Exit velocity86.9
39
Hard-hit%40.6%
60 +16 vs proj
xBA0.339
73
xSLG0.559
70
xwOBA0.309
55 -21 vs proj
BB%8.4%
50
Bat speed70.9
71
K%26.9%
28 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
58
Arm Strength92.9 · 2B
88
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B
72
Range Runs-4.9 · 2B
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · 2B
55
Bolts1.0 · 2B
11
SB Success Rate83.3% · 2B
59
Sprint Speed28.1 · 2B
69
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.4%
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
80
Correct Decisions63.7%
25
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.041
Opposing pitcherAndre Pallante
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)