Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 21 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Yandy Díaz

TB · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs BOSSonny Gray
Sample3651.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.109, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.080, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.059, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.2
F 22.3
V 13.4
Model 19.6% Market 14.2% Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 575 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 71.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 82.8% Market 83.7% Gap +12.7pp
BetMGM -515 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
58
Exit velocity91.5
89
Hard-hit%49.5%
89
xBA0.350
78
xSLG0.542
61
xwOBA0.366
92
BB%9.1%
57
Bat speed72.5
83
K%13.6%
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · DH
25
Sprint Speed26.1 · DH
20
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.6%
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0%
32
Correct Decisions68.8%
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.346 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.325 to 0.398
RegressionNegative · -0.046
Opposing pitcherSonny Gray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-21
Palantir 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.008 14d error falling
Fangorn 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 4743 props Brier 0.121 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)