Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Yandy Díaz

TB · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs TEXTrevor Williams
Sample3829.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.2
F 16.1
V 14.3
Model 21.0% Market 14.2% Gap +6.2pp
FanDuel 575 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 83.0% Market 84.0% Gap +17.8pp
BetMGM -525 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
64
Exit velocity91.2
88
Hard-hit%48.5%
91
xBA0.341
74
xSLG0.537
60
xwOBA0.355
92
BB%8.5%
51
Bat speed72.1
80
K%14.2%
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.9 · DH
13
Sprint Speed26.1 · DH
19
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4%
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
39
Correct Decisions67.7%
67
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
59
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.371 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.325 to 0.398
RegressionNegative · -0.044
Opposing pitcherTrevor Williams
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)