Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Luis Rengifo

MIL · Hitter
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample2429.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.7
F 14.2
V 10.7
Model 16.4% Market 10.0% Gap +6.1pp
DraftKings 870 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 35.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 35.3% Market 58.0% Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 68.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.9% Market -- Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel -220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
49 +20 vs proj
Exit velocity88.0
43
Hard-hit%37.9%
38
xBA0.282
16
xSLG0.390
15
xwOBA0.285
29
BB%6.9%
27
Bat speed69.2
43
K%12.0%
94 +29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
43
Range Runs-1.7 · 3B
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · 3B
30
Sprint Speed27.2 · 3B
48
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 36.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions55.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.252 · small sample
small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.028
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)