Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Matt Chapman

SF · Hitter
IN · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample4363.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.2
F 17.2
V 12.9
Model 17.0% Market 15.4% Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel 525 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 34.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 34.1% Market 58.8% Gap +0.5pp
FanDuel 410 tracking Open board
Hits 2.5
P 62.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.3% Market -- Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel -160 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
32 -46 vs proj
Exit velocity87.5
36
Hard-hit%33.8%
24 -59 vs proj
xBA0.281
15
xSLG0.386
13
xwOBA0.259
12 -57 vs proj
BB%9.1%
54
Bat speed73.8
94
K%22.6%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength88.3 · 3B
73
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B
81
Range Runs1.5 · 3B
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · 3B
31
Sprint Speed28.0 · 3B
70
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 88.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6%
Small sample
Correct Decisions79.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.087
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)