Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-07-12 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-12

Matt Chapman

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IL10 · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs COLMichael Lorenzen
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.6
F 16.3
V 13.4
Model 17.9% Market 15.4% Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 525 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.5% Market 72.6% Gap +9.9pp
BetMGM -265 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
44 -37 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
51
Hard-hit%36.7%
38 -47 vs proj
xBA0.286
18
xSLG0.435
23
xwOBA0.286
28 -45 vs proj
BB%10.4%
70
Bat speed74.2
95
K%22.3%
50
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.2 · 3B
71
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
88
Range Runs3.0 · 3B
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 3B
24
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
71
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
47
Correct Decisions70.1%
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.304 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.286 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.060
Opposing pitcherMichael Lorenzen
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)