Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 21 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Matt Chapman

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IL10 · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs SEALogan Gilbert
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.109, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.080, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.059, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.5
F 14.9
V 13.7
Model 17.1% Market 15.4% Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 525 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.9% Market 71.0% Gap +9.5pp
BetMGM -245 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
44 -37 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
51
Hard-hit%36.7%
39 -47 vs proj
xBA0.286
18
xSLG0.435
24
xwOBA0.286
28 -45 vs proj
BB%10.4%
72
Bat speed74.2
95
K%22.3%
51
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.2 · 3B
71
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
89
Range Runs2.9 · 3B
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · 3B
26
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
70
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
47
Correct Decisions70.1%
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.304 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.286 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.060
Opposing pitcherLogan Gilbert
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-21
Palantir 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.008 14d error falling
Fangorn 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 4743 props Brier 0.121 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)