Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Matt Chapman

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IL60 · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs SDRobbie Ray
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.5
F 13.2
V 11.7
Model 18.3% Market 15.9% Gap +1.8pp
FanDuel 505 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.7% Market 74.7% Gap +14.2pp
BetMGM -295 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
49 -34 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
54
Hard-hit%36.7%
43 -45 vs proj
xBA0.286
17
xSLG0.435
26
xwOBA0.286
31 -47 vs proj
BB%10.4%
74
Bat speed74.2
95
K%22.3%
53
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.2 · 3B
67
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
87
Range Runs2.8 · 3B
81
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 3B
30
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
69
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4%
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
46
Correct Decisions70.1%
86
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.286 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.060
Opposing pitcherRobbie Ray
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)