Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Zach McKinstry

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs MINTaj Bradley
Sample1872.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.8
F 11.9
V 10.1
Model 13.4% Market 8.7% Gap +4.4pp
DraftKings 1010 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 52.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 52.3% Market 70.6% Gap +12.8pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.6% Market -- Gap +3.7pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
7 -28 vs proj
Exit velocity84.8
18
Hard-hit%22.0%
4 -22 vs proj
xBA0.284
16
xSLG0.384
9
xwOBA0.285
29 -27 vs proj
BB%9.4%
62
Bat speed66.2
13
K%15.8%
86 +25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.8 · RF
94
Arm Strength96.6 · RF
74
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
94
Range Runs4.9 · RF
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · RF
20
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
63
SB Success Rate25.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.6%
57
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9%
42
Correct Decisions68.1%
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.305 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.346
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherTaj Bradley
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)