Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Cedric Mullins

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs BOSSonny Gray
Sample3150.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 12.5
Model 18.2% Market 13.7% Gap +4.0pp
DraftKings 605 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 54.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 54.4% Market 69.2% Gap +9.0pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 14.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 14.1% Market -- Gap +11.7pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.9%
21
Exit velocity84.9
16
Hard-hit%30.9%
17 -18 vs proj
xBA0.247
4
xSLG0.411
15
xwOBA0.262
12 -19 vs proj
BB%9.4%
60
Bat speed67.0
19
K%20.8%
60
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · CF
63
Arm Strength89.8 · CF
20
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
97
Range Runs5.7 · CF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · CF
31
Bolts3.0 · CF
41
SB Success Rate69.2% · CF
24
Sprint Speed27.8 · CF
61
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0%
85
Correct Decisions68.8%
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.268 to 0.339
RegressionNegative · -0.051
Opposing pitcherSonny Gray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)