Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-08-05 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-05

Cedric Mullins

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupTB vs COLTomoyuki Sugano
Sample3197.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 12.2
Model 20.1% Market 13.7% Gap +5.9pp
DraftKings 605 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.1% Market 69.2% Gap +12.4pp
BetMGM -225 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.8% Market -- Gap +15.5pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
20
Exit velocity84.7
16
Hard-hit%30.6%
17 -20 vs proj
xBA0.239
3
xSLG0.394
12
xwOBA0.253
10 -21 vs proj
BB%8.9%
55
Bat speed67.0
20
K%20.8%
59
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · CF
61
Arm Strength93.3 · CF
53
Outs Above Avg8.0 · CF
98
Range Runs7.5 · CF
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · CF
25
Bolts3.0 · CF
41
SB Success Rate64.3% · CF
19
Sprint Speed27.9 · CF
64
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.1%
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.6%
86
Correct Decisions68.6%
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.268 to 0.339
RegressionNegative · -0.065
Opposing pitcherTomoyuki Sugano
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)