Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-05-30 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-30

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT · Hitter
IL10 · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs MINBailey Ober
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 17.9% Market 13.1% Gap +4.3pp
DraftKings 640 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 76.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.3% Market 73.7% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel -330 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
64 +16 vs proj
Exit velocity90.6
78
Hard-hit%45.0%
72
xBA0.352
77
xSLG0.574
69
xwOBA0.356
83
BB%10.4%
68 +19 vs proj
Bat speed69.0
40
K%18.9%
68
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · RF
9
Arm Strength84.8 · RF
4
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
80
Range Runs-0.8 · RF
42
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · RF
1
Sprint Speed26.9 · RF
39
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.258 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.380
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherBailey Ober
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)