Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs CLEGavin Williams
Sample2529.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.8
F 14.7
V 13.2
Model 19.4% Market 13.1% Gap +5.9pp
DraftKings 640 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 54.8
F 66.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 65.2 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 54.8% Market 75.3% Gap +10.5pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 21.0
F 22.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 21.0% Market -- Gap +6.8pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
67 +20 vs proj
Exit velocity89.9
73
Hard-hit%44.9%
76
xBA0.346
76
xSLG0.567
69
xwOBA0.333
73
BB%7.8%
39
Bat speed69.0
40
K%21.7%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · RF
18
Arm Strength84.8 · RF
3
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
80
Range Runs-2.3 · RF
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.1 · RF
2
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
32
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.7%
51
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.2%
16
Correct Decisions63.5%
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.247 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.401
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.381
RegressionNegative · -0.042
Opposing pitcherGavin Williams
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)