Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs SDRandy Vásquez
Sample4734.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.1
F 15.7
V 11.9
Model 18.8% Market 26.5% Gap +5.1pp
DraftKings 265 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 45.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 45.2% Market 45.1% Gap +0.6pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 61.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.5% Market -- Gap +0.7pp
FanDuel -155 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.7%
99
Exit velocity93.2
95
Hard-hit%50.4%
90
xBA0.387
92
xSLG0.934
100
xwOBA0.384
93
BB%13.1%
86
Bat speed74.1
95
K%34.3%
3 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg-0.2 · LF
31 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.9 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · DH
14
Sprint Speed25.8 · DH
16
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions69.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.316
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.436
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherRandy Vásquez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)