Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-08-26 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-26

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs SEABryan Woo
Sample5017.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 15.0
Model 19.4% Market 26.5% Gap +4.4pp
DraftKings 265 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 43.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 44.9% Market 43.8% Gap +0.1pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 16.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.2% Market -- Gap +6.3pp
FanDuel 370 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.0%
94
Exit velocity92.8
97
Hard-hit%51.5%
95
xBA0.398
97
xSLG0.833
99
xwOBA0.368
96
BB%14.4%
96
Bat speed74.3
96
K%33.0%
6
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 1B
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
66 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.7 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.3 · DH
11
Sprint Speed25.7 · DH
12
SB Success Rate66.7% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1%
70
Correct Decisions69.2%
81
Resists FastballwOBA 0.377
7
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.439
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.436
RegressionNegative · -0.024
Opposing pitcherBryan Woo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)