Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs ATLChris Sale
Sample5045.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.2
F 12.5
V 12.5
Model 17.7% Market 25.5% Gap +5.3pp
DraftKings 280 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.5% Market 73.0% Gap +13.7pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 13.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.9% Market -- Gap +6.2pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.8%
93
Exit velocity92.4
95
Hard-hit%49.8%
93
xBA0.392
97
xSLG0.811
99
xwOBA0.362
95
BB%14.2%
95
Bat speed74.3
96
K%32.8%
7
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 1B
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
67 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.7 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.5 · DH
9
Sprint Speed25.6 · DH
11
SB Success Rate66.7% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.0%
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
63
Correct Decisions68.6%
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
64
Resists FastballwOBA 0.373
8
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.428
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.436
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherChris Sale
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)