Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Lane Thomas

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs SDMichael King
Sample2254.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.5
F 12.7
V 17.0
Model 16.1% Market 12.6% Gap +3.1pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.7
F 56.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V 55.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 63.5% Market 64.3% Gap +7.6pp
BetMGM -180 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
43
Exit velocity89.1
61
Hard-hit%41.0%
59
xBA0.341
69
xSLG0.513
51
xwOBA0.327
69 +24 vs proj
BB%13.2%
89 +52 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
60
K%22.6%
49 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.7 · CF
98
Arm Strength96.8 · CF
76
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
22
Range Runs-4.7 · CF
6
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · CF
85
Bolts12.0 · CF
72
Sprint Speed29.1 · CF
92
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.243 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherMichael King
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)