Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Lane Thomas

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs SDGermán Márquez
Sample2262.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.2
F 11.4
V 14.1
Model 16.5% Market 12.6% Gap +3.5pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 51.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 51.6% Market 68.2% Gap +8.7pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.1% Market -- Gap +10.3pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
45
Exit velocity89.3
65
Hard-hit%41.9%
63
xBA0.347
76
xSLG0.534
58
xwOBA0.334
74 +29 vs proj
BB%13.3%
90 +53 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
60
K%22.5%
49 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.7 · CF
98
Arm Strength96.8 · CF
76
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
22
Range Runs-4.3 · CF
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · CF
85
Bolts12.0 · CF
72
Sprint Speed29.1 · CF
92
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.243 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherGermán Márquez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)