Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Lane Thomas

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs TORJameson Taillon
Sample2344.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.4
F 11.7
V 18.9
Model 18.0% Market 12.6% Gap +5.0pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 48.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 48.6% Market 66.1% Gap +11.2pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 16.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.1% Market -- Gap +5.2pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
43
Exit velocity89.4
69
Hard-hit%41.2%
62
xBA0.336
70
xSLG0.514
56
xwOBA0.314
61 +17 vs proj
BB%12.1%
87 +50 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
65
K%24.5%
40
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.8 · CF
94
Arm Strength96.8 · CF
75
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
24
Range Runs-6.7 · CF
6
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.7 · CF
78
Bolts15.0 · CF
70
SB Success Rate85.7% · CF
67
Sprint Speed29.1 · CF
91
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.306
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.240 to 0.356
RegressionNegative · -0.028
Opposing pitcherJameson Taillon
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)