Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Ramón Laureano

SD · Hitter
IL60 · 5 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSD vs NYYMax Fried
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.1
F 13.2
V 10.6
Model 14.7% Market 14.9% Gap -0.6pp
DraftKings 550 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.3% Market 74.4% Gap +14.1pp
BetMGM -290 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.6%
84
Exit velocity87.9
50
Hard-hit%41.7%
66
xBA0.345
77
xSLG0.636
86
xwOBA0.312
59
BB%9.8%
66 +37 vs proj
Bat speed70.2
60
K%31.7%
11 -25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · LF
53
Arm Strength93.6 · LF
53
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs-0.3 · LF
44
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate75.0% · LF
33
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
66
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.350
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)