Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Gavin Sheets

SD · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample2071.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 59.3
F 61.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 60.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 66.9% Market 67.7% Gap +8.4pp
BetMGM -210 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
58
Exit velocity88.7
58
Hard-hit%43.4%
68
xBA0.323
52
xSLG0.537
60
xwOBA0.331
72 +15 vs proj
BB%11.1%
77 +33 vs proj
Bat speed71.8
77
K%20.5%
62
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · 1B
8
Arm Strength93.1 · 1B
89
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-1.4 · 1B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · 1B
26
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
29
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.1%
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.0%
17
Correct Decisions61.7%
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.355 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.360
RegressionNegative · -0.027
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)