Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-07-09 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-09

Yoán Moncada

LAA · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IL60 · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupLAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.1
F 16.6
V 11.1
Model 19.3% Market 12.8% Gap +6.1pp
FanDuel 655 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.8% Market 65.5% Gap +7.8pp
BetMGM -190 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
34 -17 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
87
Hard-hit%45.7%
78 +33 vs proj
xBA0.288
20
xSLG0.487
41
xwOBA0.270
15 -25 vs proj
BB%14.3%
95 +57 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
59
K%35.4%
3 -15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 3B
5
Range Runs-4.2 · 3B
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
25
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.256 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.250 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.069
Opposing pitcherNathan Eovaldi
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)