Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 21 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Yoán Moncada

LAA · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IL60 · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAA vs DETCasey Mize
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.109, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.080, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.059, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 10.4
Model 16.6% Market 12.8% Gap +3.4pp
FanDuel 655 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.0% Market 67.2% Gap +8.6pp
BetMGM -205 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
35 -15 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
87
Hard-hit%45.7%
79 +33 vs proj
xBA0.288
20
xSLG0.487
41
xwOBA0.269
15 -27 vs proj
BB%14.3%
94 +55 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
59
K%35.4%
3
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 3B
5
Range Runs-4.2 · 3B
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
25
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.256 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.250 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.069
Opposing pitcherCasey Mize
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-21
Palantir 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.008 14d error falling
Fangorn 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 4743 props Brier 0.121 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)