Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Yoán Moncada

LAA · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IL60 · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAA vs WSHCade Cavalli
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 6.3
Model 16.2% Market 12.8% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 655 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.8% Market 67.7% Gap +11.8pp
BetMGM -210 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
38 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
88
Hard-hit%45.7%
83 +34 vs proj
xBA0.288
19
xSLG0.487
46
xwOBA0.269
19 -26 vs proj
BB%14.3%
96 +56 vs proj
Bat speed70.2
60
K%35.4%
4 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 3B
5
Range Runs-4.2 · 3B
17
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
24
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.257 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.342
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.250 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.069
Opposing pitcherCade Cavalli
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)