Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-05-30 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-30

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupLAD vs PHIJesús Luzardo
Sample3927.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 34 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.7
F 15.5
V 15.5
Model 17.0% Market 28.4% Gap +8.9pp
DraftKings 240 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.3% Market 56.6% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel -145 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.9%
93
Exit velocity93.3
96
Hard-hit%50.0%
90
xBA0.392
94
xSLG0.738
95
xwOBA0.408
98
BB%15.9%
96
Bat speed73.1
89
K%22.6%
47
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.5%
54 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.8%
94 +35 vs proj
Fastball velo97.4
92
Hard-hit allowed37.2%
62
K%30.8%
92
Whiff%31.2%
92 +15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.247
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · DH
70
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
36
Sprint Speed27.3 · DH
50
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.1%
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.8%
84
Correct Decisions69.1%
77
Fastball Stuff+107
83
Mithrandir Stuff+106
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
86
Slider Stuff+110
96
Curveball Stuff+98
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.317
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · thin sample
thin sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcherJesús Luzardo
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)