Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-07-04 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-04

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAD vs SDGriffin Canning
Sample4039.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 34 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.1
F 16.6
V 19.3
Model 21.1% Market 29.3% Gap +6.0pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 71.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 85.9% Market 86.9% Gap +15.3pp
BetMGM -665 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.9%
95
Exit velocity93.6
97
Hard-hit%52.8%
95
xBA0.404
97
xSLG0.777
97
xwOBA0.410
99
BB%15.1%
96
Bat speed72.9
88
K%23.4%
43
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.1%
58
Barrel allowed3.3%
96
Fastball velo97.7
93
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
79
K%29.1%
89
Whiff%30.2%
92
xwOBA allowed0.257
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · DH
75
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
32
Sprint Speed27.5 · DH
53
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4%
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
81
Correct Decisions67.8%
67
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79
Slider Stuff+111
96
Curveball Stuff+99
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · thin sample
thin sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.014
Opposing pitcherGriffin Canning
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)