Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupLAD vs NYYCam Schlittler
Sample4069.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 34 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.2
F 15.5
V 18.3
Model 21.9% Market 29.3% Gap +5.2pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 80.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.8% Market 86.8% Gap +13.6pp
FanDuel -110 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 29.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.5% Market -- Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.7%
98
Exit velocity93.5
97
Hard-hit%52.5%
95
xBA0.403
97
xSLG0.800
98
xwOBA0.415
99
BB%14.5%
96
Bat speed73.0
89
K%23.0%
45
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
62
Barrel allowed3.5%
94 +35 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
85
K%29.4%
91
Whiff%29.5%
90
xwOBA allowed0.257
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · DH
70
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
34
Sprint Speed27.5 · DH
53
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4%
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
81
Correct Decisions67.8%
67
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79
Slider Stuff+111
96
Curveball Stuff+99
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · thin sample
thin sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherCam Schlittler
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)