Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-07-22 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-22

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAD vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample4086.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 34 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 17.8
Model 22.6% Market 29.3% Gap +4.4pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 78.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.8% Market 86.9% Gap +18.0pp
FanDuel -140 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 32.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 32.2% Market -- Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 180 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.6%
98
Exit velocity93.5
96
Hard-hit%53.0%
95
xBA0.400
96
xSLG0.791
98
xwOBA0.410
99
BB%14.2%
94
Bat speed73.0
90
K%23.2%
45
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
62
Barrel allowed3.5%
95 +35 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
86
K%29.4%
92
Whiff%29.5%
90
xwOBA allowed0.257
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · DH
70
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
34
Sprint Speed27.5 · DH
53
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4%
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
81
Correct Decisions67.8%
67
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79
Slider Stuff+111
96
Curveball Stuff+99
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · thin sample
thin sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)