Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-08-17 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-17

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupLAD vs COLTomoyuki Sugano
Sample4173.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 34 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 22.4
Model 23.8% Market 29.3% Gap +3.2pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 71.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 85.9% Market 86.9% Gap +15.7pp
BetMGM -665 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.3%
98
Exit velocity93.4
97
Hard-hit%53.1%
97
xBA0.410
99
xSLG0.791
98
xwOBA0.410
99
BB%13.9%
94
Bat speed72.9
89
K%23.0%
45
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
60
Barrel allowed3.5%
94 +37 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
92
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
86
K%29.4%
91
Whiff%29.5%
91
xwOBA allowed0.257
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · DH
56
SB Success Rate70.0% · DH
25
Sprint Speed27.7 · DH
57
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2%
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2%
79
Correct Decisions67.0%
60
Fastball Stuff+108
85
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
71
Slider Stuff+111
96
Curveball Stuff+99
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.355 · thin sample
thin sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcherTomoyuki Sugano
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)