Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-08-29 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-29

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAD vs DETKeider Montero
Sample4214.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 18.1
Model 22.7% Market 29.3% Gap +4.4pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 85.9% Market 86.9% Gap +17.8pp
BetMGM -665 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 34.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 34.0% Market -- Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.2%
98
Exit velocity93.5
98
Hard-hit%52.4%
97
xBA0.405
98
xSLG0.790
98
xwOBA0.404
99
BB%13.3%
92
Bat speed73.0
89
K%23.6%
45
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
62
Barrel allowed3.5%
95 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
92
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
86
K%29.4%
91
Whiff%29.5%
91
xwOBA allowed0.257
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · DH
72
SB Success Rate72.7% · DH
31
Sprint Speed27.7 · DH
57
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.337
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.367 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.408
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherKeider Montero
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)