Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAD vs MIARyan Gusto
Sample4232.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 34 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 19.7
Model 20.9% Market 29.3% Gap +6.1pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 85.9% Market 86.9% Gap +19.0pp
BetMGM -665 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.7%
97
Exit velocity93.3
98
Hard-hit%51.9%
96
xBA0.405
98
xSLG0.779
98
xwOBA0.399
99
BB%13.3%
93
Bat speed73.0
89
K%24.3%
43
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
62
Barrel allowed3.5%
95 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
86
K%29.4%
90
Whiff%29.5%
91
xwOBA allowed0.257
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · DH
73
SB Success Rate76.9% · DH
38
Sprint Speed27.7 · DH
56
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3%
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
83
Correct Decisions67.5%
64
Fastball Stuff+107
87
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Slider Stuff+111
98
Curveball Stuff+99
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.308 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.333
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.008
Opposing pitcherRyan Gusto
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)