Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-05-23 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-23

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs WSHJake Irvin
Sample3298.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.6
F 17.2
V 12.9
Model 20.0% Market 18.3% Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 425 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
76
Exit velocity90.3
74
Hard-hit%45.2%
72 -17 vs proj
xBA0.340
65
xSLG0.617
77
xwOBA0.374
88
BB%14.0%
90
Bat speed73.1
90
K%19.7%
62
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · RF
67
Arm Strength97.3 · RF
85
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
19
Range Runs-0.5 · RF
42
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · RF
78
SB Success Rate87.5% · RF
71
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
37
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.229 · small sample
small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.340 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.013
Opposing pitcherJake Irvin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)