Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs TEXCal Quantrill
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.3
F 14.0
V 16.1
Model 19.5% Market 18.3% Gap +0.4pp
FanDuel 425 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 70.3
F 70.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 69.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 81.8% Market 82.8% Gap +12.5pp
BetMGM -480 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
85
Exit velocity90.3
78
Hard-hit%44.3%
73 -19 vs proj
xBA0.345
74
xSLG0.667
89
xwOBA0.378
96
BB%15.2%
97
Bat speed73.4
91
K%22.1%
51
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · RF
57
Arm Strength97.8 · RF
86
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · RF
4
Range Runs-4.0 · RF
11
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · RF
63
Bolts1.0 · RF
15
SB Success Rate76.5% · RF
38
Sprint Speed27.3 · RF
48
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1%
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.7%
86
Correct Decisions71.1%
89
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.340 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.004
Opposing pitcherCal Quantrill
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)