Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 21 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.109, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.080, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.059, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 15.4
Model 20.0% Market 18.3% Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 425 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 70.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.7% Market 82.8% Gap +12.5pp
BetMGM -480 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
84
Exit velocity90.3
78
Hard-hit%44.3%
73 -19 vs proj
xBA0.345
73
xSLG0.667
89
xwOBA0.378
96
BB%15.2%
97
Bat speed73.4
91
K%22.1%
51
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · RF
57
Arm Strength97.8 · RF
86
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · RF
4
Range Runs-4.0 · RF
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · RF
64
Bolts1.0 · RF
15
SB Success Rate76.5% · RF
38
Sprint Speed27.3 · RF
48
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1%
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.7%
86
Correct Decisions71.1%
89
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.340 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.004
Opposing pitcherNathan Eovaldi
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-21
Palantir 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.008 14d error falling
Fangorn 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 4743 props Brier 0.121 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)