Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs PHICristopher Sánchez
Sample3485.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.9
F 12.6
V 15.0
Model 18.8% Market 19.3% Gap -1.2pp
DraftKings 400 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 82.8% Market 83.7% Gap +17.7pp
BetMGM -515 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
85
Exit velocity90.4
83
Hard-hit%45.7%
82
xBA0.347
79
xSLG0.639
87
xwOBA0.357
93
BB%12.5%
89
Bat speed73.4
91
K%23.5%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.0 · RF
89
Arm Strength100.1 · RF
92
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · RF
3
Range Runs-5.7 · RF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.0 · RF
42
Bolts1.0 · RF
11
SB Success Rate76.2% · RF
37
Sprint Speed27.0 · RF
39
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0%
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.0%
92
Correct Decisions70.3%
87
Resists FastballwOBA 0.297
98
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.340 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherCristopher Sánchez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)