Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample3512.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 16.7
Model 19.3% Market 18.3% Gap +0.3pp
FanDuel 425 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.8% Market 82.8% Gap +17.3pp
BetMGM -480 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
85
Exit velocity90.4
82
Hard-hit%45.9%
84
xBA0.348
80
xSLG0.650
90
xwOBA0.361
94
BB%11.9%
87
Bat speed73.3
91
K%22.6%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.1 · RF
90
Arm Strength100.1 · RF
92
Outs Above Avg-8.0 · RF
1
Range Runs-6.8 · RF
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · RF
48
Bolts1.0 · RF
12
SB Success Rate78.3% · RF
43
Sprint Speed27.2 · RF
44
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0%
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.0%
93
Correct Decisions70.1%
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.307
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.306
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.340 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)