Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-08-08 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-08

Jesús Sánchez

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupTOR vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample2094.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.6
F 13.5
V 13.2
Model 20.6% Market 12.3% Gap +7.9pp
DraftKings 685 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.8% Market 73.7% Gap +13.2pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
87
Exit velocity90.9
86
Hard-hit%47.3%
85
xBA0.363
88
xSLG0.610
80
xwOBA0.340
81
BB%5.6%
19 -28 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
75
K%22.0%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · RF
22
Arm Strength97.4 · RF
86
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs-5.3 · RF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · RF
25
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.9%
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1%
70
Correct Decisions64.1%
31
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.027
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)