Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Jesús Sánchez

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs BALChris Bassitt
Sample2134.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.4
F 13.2
V 11.6
Model 15.8% Market 12.3% Gap +3.1pp
DraftKings 685 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.8% Market 73.7% Gap +13.8pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
82
Exit velocity90.9
86
Hard-hit%46.7%
85
xBA0.345
79
xSLG0.572
73
xwOBA0.322
71
BB%6.0%
23 -25 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
75
K%23.4%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · LF
20
Arm Strength97.4 · LF
80
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
12
Range Runs-7.6 · LF
2
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · LF
24
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.8%
19
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.6%
67
Correct Decisions64.0%
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherChris Bassitt
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)