Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

William Contreras

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample2396.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.3
F 17.9
V 13.5
Model 20.7% Market 13.0% Gap +7.2pp
FanDuel 640 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 42.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 42.5% Market 42.4% Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 370 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 33.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.2% Market -- Gap +1.3pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.2%
77
Exit velocity91.1
84
Hard-hit%46.6%
80
xBA0.338
65
xSLG0.520
52
xwOBA0.355
82
BB%9.0%
52
Bat speed71.7
77
K%11.7%
95 +27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.6 · C
22
Catcher Throwing3.7 · C
100
Framing Runs-0.9 · C
36
Pop Time1.9 · C
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · C
5
Sprint Speed25.2 · C
8
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 33.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · small sample
small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.387
RegressionNegative · -0.049
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)