Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-12 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-12

William Contreras

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs PITPaul Skenes
Sample2552.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.3
F 14.6
V 14.1
Model 13.9% Market 12.6% Gap +0.9pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.1% Market 78.7% Gap +11.4pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.5% Market -- Gap +7.8pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
70
Exit velocity90.4
79
Hard-hit%43.4%
68 -20 vs proj
xBA0.321
50
xSLG0.518
53
xwOBA0.336
75
BB%8.2%
45 -25 vs proj
Bat speed71.2
73
K%13.3%
92 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.9 · C
18
Catcher Throwing3.5 · C
99
Framing Runs-5.0 · C
5
Pop Time1.9 · C
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.4 · C
4
Sprint Speed25.5 · C
10
SB Success Rate33.3% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0%
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
81
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.383
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.387
RegressionNegative · -0.028
Opposing pitcherPaul Skenes
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)