Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

William Contreras

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample2552.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.3
F 14.5
V 13.9
Model 19.7% Market 12.6% Gap +6.7pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.1
F 68.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V 67.4 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 63.1% Market 80.6% Gap +12.0pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 29.1
F 28.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 29.1% Market -- Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
69
Exit velocity90.4
80
Hard-hit%43.5%
69 -18 vs proj
xBA0.325
55
xSLG0.522
55
xwOBA0.337
76
BB%8.1%
44 -28 vs proj
Bat speed71.2
72
K%13.6%
91 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.1 · C
14
Catcher Throwing4.0 · C
100
Framing Runs-5.1 · C
5
Pop Time1.9 · C
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.4 · C
4
Sprint Speed25.6 · C
12
SB Success Rate33.3% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0%
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
81
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.383
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.387
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)