Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-26 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-26

William Contreras

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs COLKyle Freeland
Sample2580.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.6
F 17.0
V 11.6
Model 23.6% Market 13.0% Gap +10.2pp
DraftKings 645 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.9% Market 81.8% Gap +15.7pp
BetMGM -450 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 35.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 35.4% Market -- Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
70
Exit velocity90.4
80
Hard-hit%43.6%
70 -17 vs proj
xBA0.320
47
xSLG0.521
54
xwOBA0.336
77
BB%8.5%
50 -23 vs proj
Bat speed71.2
73
K%13.6%
92 +20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.3 · C
11
Catcher Throwing3.6 · C
100
Framing Runs-4.7 · C
5
Pop Time1.9 · C
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.5 · C
5
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
13
SB Success Rate33.3% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0%
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
81
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.383
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.387
RegressionNegative · -0.027
Opposing pitcherKyle Freeland
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)