Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-08-30 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-30

William Contreras

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs TEXKumar Rocker
Sample2692.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.1
F 12.4
V 12.3
Model 19.3% Market 12.6% Gap +6.3pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.5% Market 80.6% Gap +15.7pp
BetMGM -415 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 30.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.5% Market -- Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
76
Exit velocity90.4
82
Hard-hit%44.5%
78
xBA0.312
42
xSLG0.522
57
xwOBA0.336
82
BB%9.1%
58
Bat speed71.4
75
K%13.8%
92 +19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.4 · C
10
Catcher Throwing3.1 · C
95
Framing Runs-4.4 · C
11
Pop Time1.9 · C
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.6 · C
8
Sprint Speed25.9 · C
15
SB Success Rate33.3% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.6%
66
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.9%
90
Correct Decisions69.7%
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.309 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.308
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.387
RegressionNegative · -0.021
Opposing pitcherKumar Rocker
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)