Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-10-24 Refreshed Oct 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-10-24

William Contreras

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample2774.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Home Runs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.121, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Fangorn calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.124, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.120, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.7
F 12.4
V 11.2
Model 15.4% Market 12.6% Gap +2.4pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.0% Market 79.0% Gap +15.3pp
BetMGM -375 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +5.3pp
FanDuel 17500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
80
Exit velocity90.7
86
Hard-hit%45.3%
82
xBA0.317
51
xSLG0.539
62
xwOBA0.340
86
BB%9.7%
66
Bat speed71.6
76
K%14.7%
90 +15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.7 · C
9
Catcher Throwing3.1 · C
93
Framing Runs-6.5 · C
5
Pop Time1.9 · C
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.9 · C
10
Sprint Speed26.0 · C
16
SB Success Rate33.3% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.331 · small sample
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.394
4
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.365 · thin sample
thin sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.387
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-10-26
Palantir 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error rising
Fangorn 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error rising
Valinor 16797 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d error rising
Palantir 2000 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1496 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Palantir 10922 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.042 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 889 props Brier 0.170 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1106 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)